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Author: Phil Rosenzweig

Publication Date: 2007

Book Description: What’s the key message?

The most popular and inspiring books on business success, like “Good to Great,” “Authentic Leadership,” and “In Search of Excellence,” are based on faulty research and conclusions, says Phil Rosenzweig, formerly on the faculty of Harvard Business School and now a professor at IMD in Lausanne. He says the flawed thinking behind such books leads to delusions that won’t help managers succeed.

Rosenzweig says such books, though they stand on mountains of research, are based on biased data and unscientific analysis. They perpetuate the idea, according to Rosenzweig, that just a few factors, usually vague things like “culture” and “leadership,” will give you the keys to business success.

You probably remember a couple of rules that these best sellers can violate: correlation does not equal causation, inspecting a “sample” consisting only of good parts will not yield good information about a process, and anecdotal evidence is interesting but not acceptable as proof of a hypothesis. Yet even people with science-based engineering backgrounds fall for the arguments in these books.

So what are the eight delusions?

The halo effect: When we choose to study companies based on performance – the “best” companies, the factors we think contribute to their success are usually things we simply attribute to them. The business press loves success and publishers jump at the chance to publish more books about companies recognized as “good” ones. But this only means that we’ve selected only good parts to inspect, not a representative cross-section of all parts. The same companies can go downhill the next year, and the business press will reverse everything they said. The company praised for confidence is now criticized for complacency.


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